How Long Will the Recession Last?

Recently a fellow alumni posed a question to other college honor society alumni regarding the current U.S. recession and it's duration. I responded to him as follows:

Q: Does anyone have any thoughts on when they feel the economy will get back on its feet?

A: Bradley, That's a great question. I'm not sure if I'd go as far as Richard, however consider the following. The National Bureau of Economic Research tracked back and say the current U.S. recession started in December 2007. Normally a US recession lasts between 8 and 16 months (based on the history of US recessions), however we are currently in a worldwide recession (as evidenced by the collapse of Iceland's govt recently, the worst recession in Japan since WWII, bank bailouts in Europe, etc) which lasts at least 2 years minimum. By that count, the world (and the US b/c the world economy takes it's cues from the US/Wall Street) will be in recession until at least 2010. Likely longer.

However, regardless of how horrible the economy is, there are fields where folks are still making great money (healthcare, IT, etc) while other fields (automotive, recruiting/HR, marketing, banking/finance, real estate/housing/construction, government, etc) are taking a hit. When corporations & businesses again gain confidence in federal governments, then you'll see Wall Street & by definition world markets respond in like manner.

Still Rambling by Dexter Brockman

One of my good friends, Dexter Brockman, who I met when I first transferred to University of South Florida as a Jr. in 1999 now owns a publishing company, DBrockman Publishing. I'm happy that he asked me to share some of his socially conscious poetry with you, the readers of The Great Blog of Kéto. If you enjoy his poetry or are interested in publishing a book, make sure to e-mail Dexter today! KNH

Still Rambling

It’s been seven years since 9-11 when they ran into our Trade Centers with those airplanes.
It’s been eight years of struggles in our Nation with the President with a familiar last name.

We have an experience candidate that may give us four more years of the same thang.
Then there is Barack Obama on the other side saying it time for America to see a change.

Ups and downs the Country has seen, the newest thing on Capitol Hill is a Financial Sell-Out.
I mean, if anything needs to be saved is our troops over seas we need to pull them and call it a U.S.A Bail-Out.

Leslie Lynch King Jr, known as our 38th President Gerald Ford, passed in December 2006.
Our country overcame a worst deficit and didn’t Bail-Out them banks in Texas in the 80’s with a fix.

Michael Moore tried to warn America back in 2004 that our next four years wouldn’t be right.
For two elections Florida was at fault, George as Pres. Jeb as Gov. what you expect it to be like.

Yea our citizens haven’t been Saints, we all know the story about the fraud from the company Enron.
But fruit don’t fall that far from the tree; remember all the taxpayer money spent on the escort by Gov. Spitzer for fun.

Kanye told America that Bush don’t like black people, and we supported him one hundred percent.
But that’s the same Negro charged a church $30,000 for three songs saw him differently every since.

Companies laying off, sending jobs overseas, but everyone is afraid to say that we are in a recession.
Oh, but now when Wall Street need the same help as normal citizen now it’s a congressional discretion.

For God so loved in John 3:16, Prepared a table in the presence of our enemy in the book of Psalms.
Please excuse the grammatical and the errors, I had to get this off my chest and I wont even edit this poem.

You want to make a change, VOTE!

dexter brockman sr. 2008

Who Are the Socialists Now?

Every morning when I wake up, I check news headlines of the day while getting the children ready for school. Today's headlines around the world such as the Washington Post shouted "U.S. Forces Nine Major Banks To Accept Partial Nationalization". This really should have really come as no surprise to anyone considering that the US government and Federal Reserve gave themselves unprecedented power over our financial systems and the banking and financing industry during the recent economic crisis when Congress enacted the bailout--I mean financial rescue--legislation.


It just strikes me as somewhat ludicrous that in the last few weeks, the hypocritical Republican party faithful have time and time again decried Senator Barack Obama for being a "radical", "palling around with terrorists", "Muslim", "Arab" and a "socialist" especially at McCain-Palin rallies. Well here's your hero socializing the banking industry--that's what "nationalization" means. Spin it any way you want, but don't say that Obama is a "socialist" when your favorite President after Reagan has consistently made larger government a priority. This is just the latest in a trend of power grabs that Dick Cheney and George W. Bush have made under their administration's 8-year plan to consolidate as much power in the offices of the Presidency and Vice Presidency, even superseding the powers granted the Executive Office of government by the Constitution.


I'm not saying that bank nationalization is bad, I'm just saying, be consistent with your rhetoric. If you're going to take Obama to task for something he hasn't done yet, and does not have the power to do, make sure to call out your own who have already perfected such a thing to an art form.

More from the Washington Post:

The Treasury Department's decision to take equity stakes in banks represents a significant reversal, coming just weeks after Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. had opposed the idea. In a momentous meeting yesterday afternoon in Washington, Paulson, flanked by top financial regulators, told the executives of nine leading banks that they needed to participate in the program for the good of the national economy, two industry sources said on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.

The government's initiative, which was to be announced this morning before the markets open for New York trading, is part of a wider plan that goes beyond the $700 billion rescue package approved by Congress earlier this month. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is also set to announce today the launch of an insurance fund to guarantee new issues of bank debt. It will provide unlimited deposit insurance for non-interest-bearing accounts, which are widely used by small businesses for payroll and other purposes.

In pressing the bank executives to accept partial government ownership, Paulson's message was clear: Though officially the program was voluntary, the banks had little choice in the matter. In exchange for giving the Treasury minority stakes, the nine firms would jointly receive an investment worth $125 billion. The government would make another $125 billion available for the next 30 days to thousands of other banks and thrifts across the country.

Federal officials set conditions, telling the banks they could not raise their dividends without government permission and could not offer their executives new retirement packages, though the old packages would remain intact.

The Great [VP] Debate of 2008

Last night was an interesting and entertaining if not slightly confusing debate, thankfully the only one between Joe "From-hard-scrabble-Scranton" Biden and Sarah "wink-wink-participles-not-ending-in-g,-Joe-Six-Pack,-Hockey-Mom" Palin. Now it is somewhat (by 'somewhat' I mean 'completely') obvious that Joe Biden won that debate on the basis of actually having a sensible and factual answer to every question asked rather than employing mealy mouthed generalisms in every other sentence. That he was able to do this without at any point seeming condescending to to someone of incredibly low intelligence speaks a whole lot for Biden's restraint and self-composure.

I did find myself confused several times as to what exactly Palin was saying. A number of times, her answer was incoherent enough that even my 8, 11, and 12-year old children wondered, "What?" to her rambling, nonsensical answers to the most basic questions. After all, Debate Camp can teach you how to answer questions by deflecting and redirecting them, but no week-long training can teach you the fundamental rules of applying logic to a debate environment if you're not accustomed to using logic and facts to back up your arguments in the first place.

As far as ratings go, the Palin-Biden debate was the highest-rated political debate EVER, even bypassing the 1st Obama-McCain debate of September 26, 2008. I included the graphic above summarizing the totals by network with ABC getting 13.1 million viewers at the high end, CBS and Fox News with 11.1 million viewers for a tie in the middle, and MSNBC getting the lowest viewership of 4.4 million viewers. All told, nearly 70 million folks watched the proceedings.

In post-debate coverage, the NY Times provides a unique way of reviewing the debate. A reader can click on any portion of the debate text and will be taken to the corresponding portion of the debate TV footage.

What I Want to See in the Bailout Law

I still don't think Congress should bail out Wall Street. The current crisis is the result of decades of deregulation by the Republican party. As a matter of fact during John McCain's nearly 30 years in Congress (US House, 1982-86, US Senate, 1986-present) he has NEVER advocated for regulation of the finance and banking industry or of Wall Street. McCain wouldn't because he was one of the key players of the last great banking scandal, The Keating Five Scandal of the 1980's, which almost cost McCain his political career. The US government conducted a $500B savings & loan bailout after 747 companies went under. Amazingly enough, McCain still hasn't learned his lessons from that time period, (e.g., corporations rarely police themselves when left alone and do need government oversight to make sure they don't abuse each other and the consumer) and decided to insert himself into the bi-partisan bailout negotiations last week. Supposedly McCain wanted to help save the country by brokering the bailout agreement with the House, which failed to pass said agreement on Monday. This week the NY Times created a detailed graphic showing by state and party which Representatives voted "Yea" or "Nay" on Monday's bailout bill.

That said, I don't support the 2008 bailout, but I would support it IF there are provisions included which bailout the millions of US families whose homes have been foreclosed, forbid golden parachutes for executives of these failing companies, if there is a scheduled repayment plan to the US government by these companies, and finally a dividend coming BACK to the taxpayers who are footing this proposed bill once the bailout out companies become profitable again. At least Sen. Obama proposed this week that the FDIC increase deposit insurance from $100K to $250K. So there are some moves in the right direction, but we shall see what happens as the Senate votes on its version of the bailout tonight.